NL Weather Weekly
A little extra on the next 7 days.
About: Welcome to my weather blog. The point of this website is to provide a little bit of extra information on the most impactful weather we’ll be seeing each week. I will update each day of the week (for the next 7 days) at least once a week, and will provide daily updates as the scenario changes. So if there is no real impactful weather or changes as time goes on, there may be only a single entry for that week. There is no planned update schedule anymore, that was too difficult to do while maintaining my sanity. However, I did find that updating day 1 and 2 late at night then updating 3 to 7 in the morning was working well. So it will likely be some kind of version of that.
Note this is not meant to be a second forecast, just extra information to augment the current forecasts. In addition, the blog will have a note of the week section that will display an overview of the week, some climate normals for the week, or some other interesting or educational information. After having done this blog for over a year, I have come to the conclusion that it’s probably a bit too much for one single person to do. However, I have come up with a few ways to shorten the workload for myself moving forward. The only real change is that posts for later days will become a bit more point formed with less wording.
If you’ve already read below, here’s a skippidy doo dah straight to the blog.
If you haven’t read this section yet, here’s an overview of the latest format:
Days 1 and 2 will remain unchanged, covering the scenario, precipitation, wind, temperature and cloud cover.
The detail drops for day 3 to 5. I will provide a written synopsis like I have always been doing, but the precipitation, wind and temperature sections will become point form. I may add a thunderstorm risk to day 3 if I have time.
Day 6 and 7 will always be pretty vague, as generally model agreement falls off pretty quickly after 5 days. Here I will add the chance of seeing significant weather.
So what is significant weather? Basically we’re looking for anything that will cause a warning, so while I’m at it, let’s define that criteria:
- Rainfall Warning: 50+ mm in 24 hours (summer), 25+ mm in 24 hours (winter), 75+ mm in 48 hours (anytime), 25+ mm in 1 hour (anything).
- Snowfall Warning: 15 cm in 12 hours.
- Freezing Rain Warning: 3 to 4 hours of continuous freezing rain, or any amount that is deemed to be a hazard to transportation. (it’s a little vague on that second one).
- Wind Warning: Sustained winds of 80 km/h, or gusts of 100 km/h.
- Heat Warning: 2 or more days with highs above 28 C, and lows above 16 C, or 2 or more days reaching a humidex of 36.
- Severe Thunderstorm Warning: Thunderstorms producing rainfall totals of 25+ mm in one hour, hailstones of 2+ cm (nickel sized), wind gusts of 90+ km/h. (There is no criteria for lightning, though often if there is very frequent lightning, one of the other criteria is probably happening).
- Sever Thunderstorm Watch: Same criteria as above, but it’s just a head up that the conditions in the atmosphere could possibly produce a storm reaching severe status. It’s not a guarantee of severe storms.
- Storm Surge: Any combination of storm surge or large waves that might cause some coastal flooding I will try my best to talk about. However, I do not easily have access to the guidance I would normally look at through work, so I will probably only do well for the bigger storms where it’s more obvious. Tide forecasting is incredibly complex. Google it.
So that’s all the major components that is considered “significant weather”. Note, I will not doing any thunderstorm forecasting beyond day 3. It’s not going to be accurate even if I tried. I will try to update this blog for day 1 through 5 every day or every second day, if there’s something that needs major adjustment. The last two days I will update hopefully every two days, because they are generally going to be changing a lot anyway and they are just meant to be a heads up that hopefully catches some big storms early.
That’s about all I can think about at the moment, so without further ado, click here for the blog.